With the 2025 holiday season nearly wrapped up, Ohio’s retail picture is coming into focus. Sales momentum held steady, online shopping continued to carry weight, and the annual spike in seasonal scams stayed on law enforcement’s radar.
What the Numbers Say for 2025
Earlier this month, the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants (OCRM), using projections from the University of Cincinnati Economics Center, forecast Ohio’s 2025 holiday sales would rise 3.1% to reach about $32 billion. That estimate was positioned as an improvement over the 2.5% “relevant retail sales” growth reported during the 2024 holiday season.
At this point in the calendar, with most holiday purchases already made, that forecast reads less like a forward-looking guess and more like a benchmark for how the season performed. Even without final tallies in hand, the expectation of modest, steady growth matches what consumers and retailers have experienced. The season was driven by routine spending patterns rather than a pandemic-era surge.
Online Shopping Growth Stabilizes, Still Outpacing Overall Retail
Digital shopping remained a major part of the 2025 season, but not with the runaway growth seen during COVID. OCRM noted that online and mobile purchasing continues to play a strong role in overall sales, even as the pace of growth has stabilized.
What has not changed is the longer-term trend. Nonstore retail sales, including online and mobile transactions, have outperformed overall retail sales growth in Ohio every year since 2013. That matters because it reinforces how holiday shopping now works in practice. Even when shoppers show up in stores, the broader season still leans heavily on websites, mobile checkouts, delivery, and pickup.
Gift Card Scams Surge Amid the Holiday Shopping Rush
More spending also brings more fraud risk, and Ohio’s numbers show why state officials push warnings every December. Recent FBI data cited in the report placed Ohio among the top ten states for fraud complaints last year, with more than $278 million in reported losses.
The Ohio Department of Commerce specifically flagged gift card scams as a recurring seasonal problem. In the rush of holiday buying, scammers often take advantage of urgency, confusion, and high transaction volume, especially when consumers are juggling multiple purchases across online and in-store channels.
“The holiday season brings a rush of excitement as we buy gifts for everyone on our lists. Unfortunately, there are individuals out there always looking for quick and easy ways to scam you out of your money,” said Kevin Allard, the division superintendent with the Department of Commerce. “Fortunately, there are simple and easy steps you can take to avoid these scams and have a happy and enjoyable holiday season with your family and friends.”
As the season closes out, the takeaway is simple. Ohio’s retail outlook for 2025 leaned positive, online shopping remained structurally important, and the same high-spending environment that supports retail growth also creates space for bad actors to try their luck.
